Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae747ba76ff549db87f6464f6c09c4fde526093a405f186a1f742c8542a1c2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 12c | 399.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 63c | 291.85$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 51c | 198.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 54c | 180.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 178.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…f3a3backed No | 59c | 168.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 152.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 151.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 127.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 124.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 49c | 119.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 118.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 116.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 51c | 115.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 12c | 106.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 10c | 102.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 49c | 102.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 100.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 41c | 88.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed Yes | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 54c | 70.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 47c | 68.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…dd13backed Yes | 59c | 65.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1a…888bbacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 58.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9463…b519backed Yes | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed Yes | 52c | 58.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked No | 49c | 54.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 57c | 52.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 62c | 46.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…302ebacked Yes | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 55c | 45.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 59c | 42.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 56c | 41.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 41.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 64c | 40.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 39.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 52c | 38.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 65c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 63c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 55c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 29.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 27.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 42c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 26.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 53c | 25.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 57c | 23.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 47c | 23.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 49c | 21.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 54c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed No | 54c | 18.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.