Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af586c664f1bf8a5bf91f78b5a5d90e6d0e6af8604662ff61900251c669c4c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 3,736$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f2f2backed Yes | 56c | 1,374$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 57c | 832.47$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 50c | 702$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 57c | 625.78$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.92 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 44c | 411.41$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 30c | 371.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.1 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 252.29$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 42c | 216.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 44c | 211.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 48c | 189.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Yes | 56c | 108.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Yes | 58c | 99.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced5…71c2backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 56c | 54.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 54c | 54.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Yes | 57c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…9312backed Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x174f…4804backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.