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Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07c8…2696backed Over51c20,533$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,033.394100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under61c18,700$11,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,417.423,28842.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L-74.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under49c18,614$9,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,121.097447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Over36c8,500$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4403119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under54c5,909$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,170.0875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Over51c5,882$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Over49c4,086$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.713360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over50c3,000$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5108068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c2,751$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.441,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…4399backed Over44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under62c2,126$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.6119544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Over50c2,012$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.685147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over50c1,760$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c1,565$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.0378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under58c1,534$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.0851136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Over48c1,499$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.4827726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over34c1,250$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.974619.6%9 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over33c1,036$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.82,56439.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under62c967.74$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over51c890.2$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Over44c882$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.824143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under50c813.49$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.7414157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Under49c688.19$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3910552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1901…21c8backed Under76c657.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over51c607.84$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.848336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under51c588$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.881346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under51c586.5$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.444749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc97…7d32backed Over51c559.41$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.11450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Over43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.051464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under49c448$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.528764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Under39c284.62$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a2…e265backed Over49c270$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over41c270$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.32133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over50c229.56$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7811857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over51c208.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2812951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3a7…aefcbacked Over51c207.92$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9048…07f2backed Over49c203.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.491070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over49c202.03$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0410642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1009062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Under51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb84d…8b3abacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb672…7061backed Over50c190$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655b…1f37backed Under51c190$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under49c179$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7115453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under49c179$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7124258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over39c176.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.926142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over48c156.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.253020%6 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under49c156$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4411860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under51c143.77$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.822854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.815454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under49c112$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8812162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Over55c102.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5148858.8%287 W · 201 L+45.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-71.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Over26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c8…aaccbacked Over52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0411943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.563966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Over44c91.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.282737%10 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under49c90.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.438261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.618461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.619659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.616464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6111759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6112757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6112356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6113256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6112858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under49c89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6125659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Under47c88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.365459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Over48c87.5$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Under47c80.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.016657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.436053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ef1…8ec6backed Over51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89b…451fbacked Over71c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.38551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under49c67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8313957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under49c67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.838864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ca7…1cb5backed Under50c64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.713859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc0d…79cbbacked Over50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3011160.4%67 W · 44 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe83…3b00backed Over48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7175…08f1backed Over51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf830…c2dbbacked Over51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+37.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Over52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.692853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.