Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedbfbc56730fc4e6cc15761381140a468f6285220259de6281fb1d95fa191449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 8,691$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.48 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Over | 75c | 3,340$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…98b9backed Over | 66c | 3,038$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 37c | 3,014$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.41 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 64c | 1,490$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.5 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 76c | 1,312$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.59 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 1,163$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 34c | 862.69$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.85 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 47c | 697.66$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.84 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Over | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…63e6backed Over | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 25c | 600.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 542$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 63c | 443.94$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 25c | 344.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 76c | 325.79$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 53c | 304.96$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 75c | 288.96$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…efdabacked Over | 62c | 256.25$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 66c | 227.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed Over | 75c | 203.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 25c | 178.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 166.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 65c | 153.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 75c | 140.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…682abacked Over | 77c | 128.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 36c | 126.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47f…c246backed Over | 76c | 101.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 54c | 91.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 64c | 87.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 68c | 74.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Over | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 24c | 54.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 45c | 45.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 67c | 37.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…cab7backed Over | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f85…5013backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…fc8ebacked Over | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 74c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Over | 75c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c1…4c97backed Over | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…a0fdbacked Over | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.