Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4e125b9b63cd3c9d111b52b921cd7b8e52f7747a7b84f570e231245613674c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 27c | 6,646$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,830.84 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 3,388$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 34c | 2,475$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.24 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 78c | 1,818$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.62 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 29c | 1,760$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.33 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 66c | 1,718$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.89 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 73c | 1,382$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.36 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 57c | 1,087$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.44 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 925.97$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 15c | 801$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 71c | 784.81$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.28 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 712.87$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Over | 29c | 683.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 66c | 557.33$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.49 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 74c | 501.78$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.59 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 71c | 300.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.37 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 37c | 213.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cbf8backed Over | 38c | 136.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 122.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…0b04backed Under | 39c | 89.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…9546backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 26c | 78.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Under | 74c | 74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Under | 65c | 71.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked Over | 29c | 68.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 67.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Over | 58c | 32.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 70c | 32.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0b…a307backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 15.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked Under | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…0a65backed Under | 69c | 14.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.