CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af983f32e3b56dca14ad1d28899b3002d9adb97f4bc5d85498da3d802fddaad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MANA eSportsof MANA eSports, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed megoshort | 0c | 6,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed megoshort | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed megoshort | 44c | 247$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed megoshort | 45c | 205$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed megoshort | 45c | 201$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MANA eSports | 65c | 176.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed megoshort | 13c | 163.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked megoshort | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MANA eSports | 69c | 134.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MANA eSports | 65c | 100.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed MANA eSports | 56c | 79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked megoshort | 31c | 70.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed megoshort | 43c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked megoshort | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed MANA eSports | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked MANA eSports | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked megoshort | 43c | 48.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked megoshort | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked megoshort | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed MANA eSports | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked MANA eSports | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed megoshort | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked MANA eSports | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked MANA eSports | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked MANA eSports | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed megoshort | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed MANA eSports | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked MANA eSports | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked megoshort | 35c | 38.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked MANA eSports | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed MANA eSports | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed MANA eSports | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed megoshort | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2315…39b1backed MANA eSports | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked MANA eSports | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed MANA eSports | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed MANA eSports | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed MANA eSports | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed MANA eSports | 68c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed MANA eSports | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed MANA eSports | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed MANA eSports | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked MANA eSports | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed MANA eSports | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked MANA eSports | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed MANA eSports | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed MANA eSports | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort (BO3)MANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort - Map 2 WinnerMANA eSports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.