NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b0ecff2bd640aafcb869e2d943a9df61801d5667d0a50469932147159851fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Canadiens, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,234 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens | 41c | 5,974$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,533.52 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 2,222$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.98 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 1,978$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.02 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Canadiens | 40c | 1,064$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.54 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 1,036$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.25 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Canadiens | 39c | 653.6$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.7 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 634.04$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.42 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 491.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.12 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 382$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.2 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 348.44$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 293$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 250$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 246.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 42c | 114$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Canadiens | 40c | 112.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Canadiens | 40c | 101$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…92c9backed Canadiens | 40c | 75.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Canadiens | 40c | 32.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Canadiens | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Maple Leafs | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Canadiens | 55c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.