NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaded38badf541286694ce481230308cfb42c18867dfce3cd7b6ddd578392633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,754 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Over | 57c | 10,572$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 3,827$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.89 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 47c | 3,085$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.59 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 52c | 2,438$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 46c | 2,402$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.47 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 2,289$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.91 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.43 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 2,002$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 54c | 1,979$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.93 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 50c | 1,450$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 53c | 1,256$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.66 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 34c | 1,055$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.53 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 970$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.33 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 894.77$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.07 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 47c | 780.33$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.66 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 50c | 765.72$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.99 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 573$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.69 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 53c | 566.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 562$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…17e0backed Over | 54c | 541.66$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 392.64$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.43 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 55c | 363.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…4c18backed Over | 56c | 358$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 333.42$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 307$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 44c | 291.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 45c | 233.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Over | 53c | 185.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 183.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Under | 46c | 139.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 51c | 138.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed Under | 46c | 136.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Under | 46c | 135.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…3dbebacked Over | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…50a5backed Under | 46c | 129.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 49c | 127.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 47c | 106.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 103.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 45c | 76.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 45c | 66.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 54c | 63.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…8335backed Under | 47c | 63.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 45c | 63.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…f5debacked Over | 56c | 62.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 21c | 53.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 48c | 52.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Under | 47c | 41.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc9…c447backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d3…98e5backed Over | 54c | 37.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Under | 48c | 31.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 54c | 28.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 51c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Over | 52c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 54c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…baf8backed Under | 47c | 22.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1097…43e8backed Over | 51c | 21.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 20.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.