Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b35549826ecd1ce4e444c46b48920f2d7f0a9c40d101c1d7a24cafadea312e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 499.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 7c | 328.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 280.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 262.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 204.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 178.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 77c | 152.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 127.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 101.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 101.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 93.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 73c | 93.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 25c | 93.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 32c | 86.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 84.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 79.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 78.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 66.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 23c | 59.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 29c | 42.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 42.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 70c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 70c | 33.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 31.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 75c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 76c | 29.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 78c | 29.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…b738backed No | 67c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 77c | 27.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 66c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ca…e712backed No | 75c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 76c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 77c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed No | 75c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.