Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedcd023621d2c488d7cc1d8882cb549c678f201638c5be895e13b8281337af02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…2ba5backed Yes | 58c | 902.63$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 625$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 268.01$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 267.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 228.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…c2c8backed Yes | 78c | 200.78$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 195.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 178.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 170.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 39c | 120.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 116.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 25c | 113.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 110.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 109.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 27c | 107.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 65c | 107.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 107.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 105.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf7…46f0backed Yes | 55c | 101.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 25c | 100.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 25c | 94.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 75c | 91.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 25c | 88.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 63c | 87.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 46c | 82.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 14c | 82.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 70c | 69.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 39c | 66.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 46c | 58.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 54.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 35c | 53.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed Yes | 44c | 52.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 51.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 38c | 48.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 57c | 47.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 65c | 39.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 39.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 67c | 39.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 44c | 38.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 29c | 38.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 43c | 37.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 37c | 34.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 33.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 64c | 29.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 58c | 28.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 27.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 45c | 26.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 26.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 59c | 23.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed Yes | 66c | 21.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 53c | 21.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 21.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 20.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 20.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 67c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes | 62c | 18.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.