Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b4902482016a9eab1833df7458d97a58e757d022b690cbf93723236ac019184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed No | 61c | 2,667$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 40c | 2,185$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 47c | 2,076$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.98 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…161fbacked No | 61c | 1,768$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7f…472ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,766$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 37c | 1,602$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 41c | 1,412$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 37c | 749.63$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.27 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 61c | 632.99$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.03 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 63c | 499.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 23c | 447.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 37c | 366.84$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.11 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 17c | 354.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…04b8backed Yes | 76c | 263.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 63c | 261.9$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 8c | 180.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed No | 33c | 177.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…da60backed Yes | 69c | 145.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd07a…2bb0backed Yes | 72c | 139.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 37c | 134.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…2300backed Yes | 79c | 126.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 40c | 125.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 34c | 111.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a0…efb0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…649abacked Yes | 40c | 74.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…cd3abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…533cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…ab31backed Yes | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-10-28?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2025-10-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.