TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7401…da60

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Mls, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Mls at 53 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2025%5 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.21
Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.12
Will there be 25+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$917Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$916.86
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,383Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,383.44
Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.86
Will there be 50+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$262
Will there be 35+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.29
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,230Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$367.4
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,096Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,095.53
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$178.8
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$462.29
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$36
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$403.8
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,444.65
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$805Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$472.57
Will France win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$1,339.36
All 20 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-76.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+58.7%+$17.62
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Texans vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 20.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+63.3%+$253.09
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+160.3%+$192.08
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$277.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$27.69
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+58.7%+$55.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$31.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$31.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 137.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$135.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,447.09
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.