Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53b222f3228ca40f86f3ab5d27b6ee961af4f2e66007d6257f2e2c8dd05d0f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Yes | 18c | 10,027$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 15c | 5,438$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.71 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 17c | 4,221$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.92 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 3,406$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 3,050$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 17c | 2,498$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.66 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 1,901$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.21 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x043d…2807backed Yes | 15c | 1,900$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,799$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,582$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 15c | 1,533$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.95 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 16c | 961.09$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 2c | 900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +1,047.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Yes | 16c | 724$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Yes | 17c | 710.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 17c | 664.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 485.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…9bedbacked Yes | 17c | 425$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…da60backed Yes | 12c | 416.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 17c | 275$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 17c | 226$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked No | 76c | 215$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb2…ca8ebacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 18c | 180.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 19c | 172.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 15c | 119.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 118.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b6…3f65backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…038bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4039…e1d0backed Yes | 17c | 79.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 19c | 79.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-31?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.