Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3fc459ec20d64c1ef8f683736adef131c3a6f7808d862a9aa99a5fef4d8cb1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 21,164$4,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,566.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 78c | 20,246$15,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,454.22 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 22c | 1,150$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 909.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 605.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 513.17$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 27c | 364.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked No | 78c | 257.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 21c | 172.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 77c | 167.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 18c | 132.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 22c | 110.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…b432backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…be29backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…e781backed No | 78c | 89.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes | 26c | 82.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…745bbacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…2354backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2609…3e72backed No | 74c | 77.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…f17bbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked No | 79c | 59.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62bf…6e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-10-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.