Fifa International · resolved market
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b856bb4e58445bc4ecd35bf9b2c7c34947633275018c7bca8ae36bb94c6852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc83f…9d5cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…9393backed Yes | 2c | 8,749$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…9fd7backed Yes | 1c | 6,078$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 6,026$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 5,186$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…da60backed Yes | 31c | 4,532$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.44 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,965$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 3c | 2,216$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 70c | 2,143$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.83 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 5c | 2,064$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked No | 68c | 1,999$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.49 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…c846backed Yes | 5c | 812.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 2c | 650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed No | 80c | 359$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 185 | 38.9%72 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 21c | 210.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 81.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 19c | 54.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 71c | 51.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…07e0backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…8227backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…2315backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…d010backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…599ebacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will there be 25+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will there be 30+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will there be 35+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will there be 40+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will there be 50+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.