Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402562f05d4a91326b747cff9b450576bcc5c97de7cdf337f777c882e3d0e646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 49c | 2,795$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.59 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 58c | 2,003$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.94 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 50c | 1,885$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.36 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 13c | 864.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.52 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7114…6432backed Yes | 9c | 479.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 18c | 457.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.63 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 400$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7401…da60backed No | 49c | 350.58$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b25…ff39backed No | 42c | 280.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…dddabacked Yes | 50c | 254.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…01d0backed No | 42c | 234.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 225$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…9781backed No | 62c | 161.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked No | 42c | 158.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…7761backed No | 42c | 137.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 135.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 49c | 135.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…60d2backed No | 42c | 134.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed No | 34c | 122.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0968…0165backed No | 42c | 122.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…acdebacked No | 42c | 90.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 44c | 57.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 44.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…d2c9backed Yes | 55c | 36.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…9ad7backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 20.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 53c | 19.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Uruguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.