Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b5acc2af52551b4376a6e0ddea9b683fdf0273dab9cd019f33f2866dd1caf0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 1,106$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 538.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 75c | 267.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 197.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 21c | 193.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 22c | 179.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 174.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 159$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 20c | 152.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 15c | 133.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 9c | 131.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 126.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 19c | 117.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 104.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 93.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 75.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 21c | 71.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 74c | 67.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 61.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 55.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 72c | 38.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 36.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 32.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 31.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 27.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 67c | 23.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 79c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.