Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ce9e3d83c68a25fa43a8b5a2c9a5d87476b726909359a704598f588f748a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 294.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 29c | 200.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 56c | 192.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 190.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 173.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 165$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 146.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 144.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 70c | 137$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 20c | 120.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 31c | 117.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 114.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 102$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 89.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 85.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 84.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 79.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 61.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 42c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 44.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 48c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 68c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 36.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed No | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 55c | 28.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 26.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 19.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…4907backed No | 54c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 71c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.