Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecfe3ad79e096b0c1357ca6f0c28281b32dc1686c76e90b2a45f97d6c66209fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,092$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 3c | 737.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.02 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 645.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 620.08$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 340.28$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 12c | 318.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 230.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 181$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 180.04$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 54c | 162.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 155.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 149.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 12c | 143.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 142.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 12c | 121.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 68c | 107.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 102.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…8d06backed No | 44c | 93.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 17c | 89.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 16c | 87.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 61c | 84.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 69.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 69.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 17c | 63.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 62.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 65c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 30c | 41.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 49c | 37.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 26.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 66c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.