Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b7d24a529bf4e36f4c1b5842010cf191022013856a8566e59494013ea68431f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 4,046$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,818$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,942$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,805$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,692$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 3c | 1,526$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,466$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 1,445$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 1c | 1,292$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,084$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 11c | 985.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 9c | 938.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 7c | 875.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 3c | 763.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…45b8backed Yes | 3c | 625.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 603$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 15c | 516.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 372.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 9c | 294.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…7381backed Yes | 6c | 272.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 233.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 30c | 230.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 15c | 212.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 7c | 204.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 80c | 200.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 11c | 186$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 9c | 172.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 17c | 166.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 163.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 156.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 147.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 15c | 136.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…3140backed Yes | 28c | 133.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 23c | 119.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…caf0backed Yes | 42c | 109.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 15c | 98.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 50c | 92.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 50c | 92.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 17c | 82.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 17c | 72.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 71.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 58.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 23c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…8b09backed No | 76c | 27.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 27.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.