Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb91ee9ab7617eeaa3f60bb4d06026adc9d6c34107bb325523754b04877d57884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 1,520$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 1,101$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.87 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 3c | 974.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 469.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 437.65$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 372.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 30c | 356.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 306.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 46c | 299.55$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 282.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 258.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 231$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 221.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…e27abacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 188.21$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 186.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 165$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 149.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 142.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 134.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 43c | 109.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 21c | 104.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 98.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 98.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 95.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 93.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 48c | 86.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 86.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 82.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 75.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 41c | 74.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 73.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 73.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 19c | 72.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 69.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 66.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 62.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 54.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed Yes | 29c | 53.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 52.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 52.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 59c | 42.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 56c | 41.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 53c | 40.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 39.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 74c | 37.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 77c | 35.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 34.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 31.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 53c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 27.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 43c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 24.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 55c | 23.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 57c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.