Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ff5bd4182fd312ce9d12212df2c3d4dc630e6b2d5ba18ff979cf7d3a529f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 60c | 1,924$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.63 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 49c | 800$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.48 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 521.73$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 424.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 420.16$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked No | 24c | 402.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 390.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 79c | 355.82$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 25c | 348.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 39c | 342.35$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 306.02$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 234.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 11c | 221.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 39c | 219.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 40c | 211.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 15c | 211.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 27c | 200.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 197.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 21c | 191$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 188.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 188.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 13c | 181.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 69c | 180.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 160.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 158.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 31c | 149.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 140.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 140.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 139$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 134.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 131.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 125.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 123.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed No | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 28c | 118.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 112.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 107$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 65c | 98.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 86.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 85.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 84.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 23c | 65.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 71c | 62.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 57c | 61.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 56.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 68c | 55.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 53.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 49c | 50.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 49c | 50.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 57c | 43.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 43.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 78c | 41.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 29c | 38.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 31c | 35.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 34.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed Yes | 61c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 42c | 29.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 63c | 27.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 49c | 26.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 45c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 54c | 26.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 45c | 23.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 61c | 22.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 79c | 22.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 67c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.