Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bbafe7e3ee5d0581f360685475fefe5f08b201e40d84e68bf080c64526e7133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8851…1d7abacked Yes | 3c | 586.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 35c | 443.5$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 7c | 437$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 65c | 287.28$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 9c | 284.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 254.6$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 65c | 253.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 74c | 230.95$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 211.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 208.51$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…9418backed Yes | 55c | 160.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 66c | 145.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 139.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 9c | 134.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…99a5backed Yes | 24c | 134.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Yes | 46c | 130.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 20c | 116.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked Yes | 26c | 97.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 49c | 85.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 85.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 84.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 80.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 79.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 35c | 71.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 68.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 63.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 43c | 58.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 56.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 23c | 54.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed No | 19c | 53.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 47.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 53c | 47.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 50c | 46.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 45c | 44.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 55c | 44.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked No | 58c | 42.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 38.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 35.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 45c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 32.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 31.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed Yes | 77c | 30.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 45c | 28.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 43c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 63c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 68c | 22.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 20.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 52c | 19.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed No | 77c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…168dbacked Yes | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.