Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Krejcikova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bc0ac1c247ea4845c3f5f2048efbf2707483b5b67dccbdae0b0d56e332df61d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krejcikovaof Muchova, Krejcikova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Krejcikova | 65c | 5,925$3,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.86 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Muchova | 35c | 4,519$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.03 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Krejcikova | 64c | 1,527$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.42 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Muchova | 36c | 1,076$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.25 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Krejcikova | 64c | 1,019$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.6 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Krejcikova | 49c | 986.22$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.23 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova | 36c | 791.43$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Muchova | 29c | 727.65$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Muchova | 36c | 612.22$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Muchova | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Muchova | 49c | 495$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Muchova | 36c | 465.81$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Muchova | 71c | 253.52$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Muchova | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Muchova | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Krejcikova | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…63c2backed Muchova | 39c | 84.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Muchova | 40c | 76.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Muchova | 37c | 75.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Krejcikova | 61c | 59.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Muchova | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Muchova | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Muchova | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Muchova | 40c | 27.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Muchova | 60c | 27.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Muchova | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Krejcikova | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Krejcikova | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Krejcikova (+1.5)this page
- Karolina Muchova vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Muchova vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs KrejcikovaMuchova won
- Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs KrejcikovaKrejcikova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Completed Match: Karolina Muchova vs Barbora KrejcikovaYes won
- Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Barbora KrejcikovaKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.