South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd46fd526832559f50be7fb17dca5d84a5a5ec9c40d1a8a46ff378809b9b645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 1,180$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.24 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 514.95$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.95 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 433.21$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 69c | 364.58$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 56c | 317.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 52c | 210.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 184.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 172.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 43c | 153$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…9fc7backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 31c | 58.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 72c | 55.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…1e19backed Over | 54c | 53.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 48c | 43.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 37c | 39.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…a29bbacked Over | 63c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…85f8backed Over | 58c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…7c24backed Over | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…e4cbbacked Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.