South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb681be57efd398262631ad18f8c47cd492ebf3be9b94cbebe47d25088fc0987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…b2fbbacked Over | 51c | 2,039$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Under | 53c | 1,061$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 912.56$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.98 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 15c | 585.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 330.64$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 310.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 245$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 239.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 236.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 56c | 235$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 217.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 48c | 208.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 56c | 189.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 74c | 134.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…d416backed Over | 15c | 94.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Under | 58c | 77.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…7c24backed Over | 38c | 65.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 63.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 35c | 42.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 65c | 38.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 47c | 31.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Over | 55c | 29.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 53c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5this page
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.