NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be860ac65d72afc1b86ff22978e71274211404e6f8df062db51e3e2eff87a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,550 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Over | 64c | 1,648$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.32 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 36c | 972$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.08 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 36c | 519.45$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.84 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 228.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 35c | 182.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…3676backed Over | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 63c | 93.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 35c | 73.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Under | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 36c | 38.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 62c | 37.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 36c | 30.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…f044backed Over | 65c | 23.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd191…e9abbacked Over | 66c | 23.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc410…7688backed Over | 66c | 23.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…1b8cbacked Over | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Over | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7f…3a0abacked Over | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…ca48backed Over | 65c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…1a0fbacked Over | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…f9e8backed Over | 65c | 18.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff3f…f9d8backed Over | 66c | 17.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4842backed Over | 65c | 17.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…fd37backed Over | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…7c3abacked Over | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SabresSabres won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.