NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68de0ee994381311f04e9f48cdb40f3eace46280c61d0eebc29d482862c5907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,090 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 52c | 34,026$17,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,684.87 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 48c | 26,340$12,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,697.05 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 7,543$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,922.36 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,838$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 49c | 4,380$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.57 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 49c | 3,405$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.8 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 2,187$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.27 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 1,398$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.8 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 54c | 1,130$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.2 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Over | 51c | 1,062$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 49c | 788$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.88 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 651.4$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 48c | 486.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 459.74$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.95 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 323$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 317.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 312.42$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 282$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d6…be17backed Over | 58c | 258$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 255.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 47c | 238.92$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 42c | 222.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.17 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 178.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 54c | 166$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 88.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 80.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 53c | 58.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Over | 70c | 52.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 43.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 42.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Over | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 33.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Under | 42c | 32.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cf…a5c9backed Over | 50c | 32.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 52c | 30.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 56c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 55c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 47c | 23.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SabresSabres won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.