Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Northern Colorado Bears (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c097216a918cf765b46afc977b573356dfb71488b15059748891fc6e320e663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Northern Colorado Bears, Montana State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 47c | 6,382$3,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.7 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Northern Colorado Bears | 53c | 5,013$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.33 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Colorado Bears | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Northern Colorado Bears | 51c | 514.03$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.16 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 400.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.18 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Northern Colorado Bears | 52c | 224.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Northern Colorado Bears | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 114.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Northern Colorado Bears | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…65babacked Northern Colorado Bears | 52c | 61.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Northern Colorado Bears | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Montana State Bobcats | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Northern Colorado Bears | 51c | 33.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northern Colorado Bears (-2.5)this page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Colorado BearsMontana State Bobcats won
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Northern Colorado Bears: O/U 155.5Under won
- Spread: Northern Colorado Bears (-3.5)Montana State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.