NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c29bef027432640bdad31f74977add9d25d3fda9c7b89c867bc8c854c927687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 497.67$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 71c | 291.56$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 177.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 115$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 56c | 106.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 43c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 95.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 56c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 57c | 72.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Over | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 37.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 62c | 34.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…00a5backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Over | 54c | 20.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Kings vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Kings vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.