Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5577ec67303cc4bf9b349e500320f82b3812e893a7d742bcbac9eeca6cf777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,700 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,316$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b53…1e77backed Yes | 3c | 1,134$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 368.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 267.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 17c | 243.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 45c | 243.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 53c | 234.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 14c | 229.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 208.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes | 43c | 206.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 60c | 172.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 48c | 166.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 156.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 145.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 56c | 134.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 35c | 116.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 45c | 111.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 106.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 71c | 100.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 97.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 96.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…6534backed Yes | 46c | 94.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 49c | 93.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 90.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 41c | 75.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 61c | 67.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 66.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 62.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 49c | 61.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 51c | 58.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…56cabacked Yes | 49c | 56.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…1ec2backed Yes | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…85c6backed Yes | 48c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 48.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 47.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 28c | 46.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…b65ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 46.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 39c | 45.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 42.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 65c | 38.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 37.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…0201backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 56c | 24.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 56c | 23.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.