Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d305f1cfa347921344255d29e1f027e5ea18aa8d2d036ab82e9471a3a3529a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,067 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x690b…9145backed No | 2c | 12,900$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…4906backed No | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 2,883$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,221$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b53…1e77backed No | 5c | 1,163$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 18c | 964.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…0583backed No | 2c | 527.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…ec6fbacked No | 5c | 437.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes | 52c | 358.32$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 59c | 338.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 323.41$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 30c | 223.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.6 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 210.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 195.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 30c | 132.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 132.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 129.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 116.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 115.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 38c | 114.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 106.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 99.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 57c | 95.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 59c | 92.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 92.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 88.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 88.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 32c | 83.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…56cabacked Yes | 32c | 82.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 74c | 81.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 46c | 79.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 40c | 78.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 75.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 73.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 72c | 67.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 15c | 66.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 31c | 66.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 65.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 60c | 62.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…c875backed Yes | 22c | 56.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 65c | 56.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 56.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…2ba1backed No | 66c | 54.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 44c | 54.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 30c | 51.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 25c | 45.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 69c | 43.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 44c | 42.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 41.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 58c | 41.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 41.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 68c | 37.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 70c | 37.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 34.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 71c | 32.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 52c | 30.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 26.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…190fbacked Yes | 52c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 52c | 24.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 74c | 24.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 20.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…d930backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.