Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7439b45c06068aba3a8a1b7214d191b733902d868694c320b8bddd6e9d53d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,151$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 1,122$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…52debacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 15c | 985$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 60c | 959.8$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.78 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…aea1backed Yes | 45c | 912.9$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 49c | 729.52$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.46 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 53c | 645.04$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.91 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 8c | 435.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 17c | 252$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 45c | 220.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…5294backed Yes | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 59c | 66.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf21e…297bbacked Yes | 53c | 58.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 66c | 54.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…e0c4backed Yes | 48c | 41.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on December 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on December 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on December 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on December 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on December 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.