WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c76703f6e6bef88e2fc8026b29506710910eb62b86e63f30a551e5535c2a7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Dallas Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream | 58c | 1,627$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.77 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Wings | 50c | 1,621$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.96 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 1,401$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.33 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…5228backed Atlanta Dream | 56c | 895.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Dallas Wings | 46c | 659.64$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.71 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Dallas Wings | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Dream | 54c | 198.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Dallas Wings | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Dallas Wings | 18c | 163.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…43d3backed Dallas Wings | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 49.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Atlanta Dream | 45c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Dallas Wings | 47c | 30.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Dallas Wings | 46c | 22.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 22.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Atlanta Dream | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc0…749abacked Atlanta Dream | 61c | 18.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5)this page
- Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 172.5Under won
- Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.