South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8995508baecfda049c060f432d252fc55e24cf7083579cb52827e37dcd29d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,140 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 57c | 6,652$3,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,848.29 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 6,148$2,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,942.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 33c | 6,000$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.66 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 2,192$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.03 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a39…a189backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 769.43$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Yes | 20c | 443.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 67c | 375$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 16c | 312.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 62c | 299.23$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 67c | 234.43$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 67c | 221.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 47c | 220.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 18c | 181$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 67c | 175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 67c | 175$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 36c | 111.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 89.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 49c | 87.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 53c | 73.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 67c | 69.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 56.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 55.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 66c | 49.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 45c | 48.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked No | 69c | 48.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed No | 52c | 41.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 84.1%37 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 54c | 39.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 57c | 37.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 72c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 79c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.