Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb13c31085afcd4ec048a92b7e82c2616ff3510a1f69a481c8051af234258b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 46c | 441.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 79c | 377.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 36c | 248.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 63c | 151.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 50c | 119.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 53c | 108.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 37c | 30.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 61c | 27.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed No | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 19?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 15?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 16?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 17?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 18?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.