Tennis · resolved market
ITF Southaven: Kaylan Bigun vs Naoya Honda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc7cd4db05a4c04421fc81b9fdfcfb16770e7c5eec96fd8ba93db54fb9a733e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kaylan Bigunof Kaylan Bigun, Naoya Honda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kaylan Bigun | 45c | 1,028$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.54 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Kaylan Bigun | 43c | 894.38$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.33 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoya Honda | 55c | 693$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.9 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…235fbacked Kaylan Bigun | 55c | 598.09$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.14 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Naoya Honda | 45c | 594.91$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.71 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kaylan Bigun | 47c | 453.74$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Kaylan Bigun | 52c | 424.62$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 54c | 340.22$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.82 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Naoya Honda | 54c | 303$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Naoya Honda | 51c | 282.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Naoya Honda | 47c | 252.94$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 329 | 52.3%172 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Naoya Honda | 48c | 202.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Naoya Honda | 53c | 162.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Kaylan Bigun | 54c | 129.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Naoya Honda | 54c | 127.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Kaylan Bigun | 56c | 118.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Kaylan Bigun | 48c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Naoya Honda | 46c | 108.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 181 | 47.5%86 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Kaylan Bigun | 60c | 98.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kaylan Bigun | 43c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Naoya Honda | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Naoya Honda | 53c | 80.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Naoya Honda | 52c | 70.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kaylan Bigun | 52c | 54.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kaylan Bigun | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Kaylan Bigun | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Kaylan Bigun | 45c | 31.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Naoya Honda | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kaylan Bigun | 46c | 29.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Kaylan Bigun | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Kaylan Bigun | 49c | 25.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.