Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cf4f6087e1408f502ad19a11df4fd32b8a1da23aac98423709aa158c7ead696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Alcaraz | 74c | 3,122$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.94 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Alcaraz | 74c | 2,257$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ruud | 27c | 2,122$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.94 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ruud | 25c | 2,056$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.88 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ruud | 2c | 1,086$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ruud | 20c | 1,029$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…6d69backed Alcaraz | 75c | 973$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ruud | 25c | 882.14$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Ruud | 23c | 750.26$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.55 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Ruud | 16c | 621.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Alcaraz | 71c | 595.93$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Ruud | 24c | 457.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Alcaraz | 75c | 400.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…3c51backed Alcaraz | 76c | 373.37$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…adbdbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 358.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Ruud | 26c | 337$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ruud | 23c | 274.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Ruud | 11c | 260.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Ruud | 29c | 254.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Ruud | 35c | 243.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Ruud | 29c | 241.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Alcaraz | 73c | 224.07$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Ruud | 8c | 218.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Alcaraz | 76c | 213.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Ruud | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7f10backed Ruud | 34c | 170.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Alcaraz | 71c | 146.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Ruud | 28c | 143.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ruud | 28c | 143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae5…f4cabacked Ruud | 10c | 141.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Alcaraz | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…1ff9backed Alcaraz | 75c | 132.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Ruud | 16c | 121.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz | 74c | 115.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…1457backed Alcaraz | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Ruud | 33c | 101.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ruud | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Ruud | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed Alcaraz | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…70ffbacked Ruud | 27c | 74.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Alcaraz | 73c | 68.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Ruud | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Alcaraz | 73c | 41.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…0abbbacked Ruud | 27c | 37.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…327bbacked Ruud | 31c | 35.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Alcaraz | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…8874backed Alcaraz | 74c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Ruud: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper RuudCarlos Alcaraz won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs RuudAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.