TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Carlos Alcarazof Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$559,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$591,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $559,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0457…4403backed Casper Ruud8c70,903$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.996829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Casper Ruud3c60,353$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.122,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Casper Ruud1c49,999$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.221,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b4…13c9backed Casper Ruud3c33,295$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.873647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Casper Ruud9c16,135$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.382729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Casper Ruud2c11,610$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.441,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Casper Ruud9c11,314$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Casper Ruud7c10,170$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.1913135.9%47 W · 84 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Casper Ruud10c9,994$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.4917823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Casper Ruud11c8,594$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.1137540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Casper Ruud6c7,760$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.545343.9%199 W · 254 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Casper Ruud0c7,668$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5223731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Casper Ruud11c7,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82530639.9%122 W · 184 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Casper Ruud1c5,902$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.342550.8%2 W · 253 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Casper Ruud1c5,186$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.562,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Casper Ruud7c4,074$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.158348.2%40 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x895f…cfadbacked Casper Ruud9c3,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Casper Ruud8c3,494$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5216636.7%61 W · 105 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked Casper Ruud10c3,431$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.084117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Casper Ruud4c3,165$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12047252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a73…e1adbacked Casper Ruud9c2,778$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015826.6%42 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Casper Ruud4c2,642$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x169d…fb3dbacked Casper Ruud3c2,154$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6380%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Casper Ruud4c2,102$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7522949.8%114 W · 115 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Casper Ruud1c1,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Casper Ruud8c1,943$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1648530.6%26 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Casper Ruud3c1,884$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.657,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Casper Ruud3c1,749$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2122033.6%74 W · 146 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Casper Ruud3c1,721$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1484736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Casper Ruud2c1,671$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.095541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Casper Ruud6c1,600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.26835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Casper Ruud2c1,581$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8811426.3%30 W · 84 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0e…bb40backed Casper Ruud9c1,489$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344930.6%15 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Casper Ruud4c1,398$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022634.5%78 W · 148 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x628a…6d8fbacked Casper Ruud3c1,167$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8711347.8%54 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0e…7454backed Casper Ruud6c1,125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Casper Ruud9c1,112$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.081,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Casper Ruud5c1,083$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4235730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Casper Ruud4c1,010$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5044…f67fbacked Casper Ruud11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Casper Ruud10c999.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9912322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Casper Ruud8c944.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.541513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Casper Ruud10c855.16$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5752…e85fbacked Casper Ruud5c812.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf0…0d6cbacked Casper Ruud3c748.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick31cpaid-23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Casper Ruud9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Casper Ruud9c660$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.412439.5%49 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Casper Ruud8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032147%151 W · 170 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc847…0a42backed Casper Ruud2c620.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.04280%0 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Casper Ruud10c547.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.361,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Casper Ruud7c543.71$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.064,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Casper Ruud7c536$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.527,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Casper Ruud5c499.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1575.3%3 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Casper Ruud10c457.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.381933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Casper Ruud3c455.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Casper Ruud11c436.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Casper Ruud11c409.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Casper Ruud10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6339…141ebacked Casper Ruud8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-59.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Casper Ruud8c389.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25048%24 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x381a…f63dbacked Casper Ruud8c362.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.011136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Casper Ruud10c349.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.31850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Casper Ruud3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.270729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39f…82e8backed Casper Ruud11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6887…5a0cbacked Casper Ruud4c256$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.242339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad4…83b8backed Casper Ruud9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d4d…232dbacked Casper Ruud5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6e8…b293backed Casper Ruud10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020337.9%77 W · 126 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb866…3302backed Casper Ruud8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16190%0 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Casper Ruud6c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Casper Ruud8c186.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.964632.6%15 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Casper Ruud7c183.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.871330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0b…e3a8backed Casper Ruud11c183.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…c2a0backed Casper Ruud7c165$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127227.8%20 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Casper Ruud10c151.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156259.7%37 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…f6bfbacked Casper Ruud9c133.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126435.9%23 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3f…ae90backed Casper Ruud11c100.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.