Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d69b9d757a70f3b610deee1cffce9a809f9aa5fd57e9dbf44ee544587d31e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 36c | 540$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 402.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 351.64$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 216.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 205.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 178.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 29c | 153.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 137.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 37c | 131.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 128.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 102.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 100.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 79c | 99.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 94.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 42c | 78.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 65.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 61.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 60.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 33c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…8f16backed No | 67c | 59.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 67c | 57.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 52.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 41.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 37.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 36.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 35.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 35.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 35.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 32.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 43c | 29.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked Yes | 43c | 28.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 22.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 68c | 21.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 65c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.