Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6d7ab53749d1101306888041cfd77a19a0fbe9e171d774737af9620c08c949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 544.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 60c | 279.14$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 265.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 37c | 225$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.7 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 219$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 66c | 203.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 170.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 29c | 160.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 34c | 157.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 140$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 38c | 127.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 39c | 114.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 40c | 100.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 94.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a8…e7bcbacked Yes | 34c | 93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 90.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 37c | 80.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 62c | 80.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 16c | 78.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 56c | 74.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 73.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 73.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 70c | 71.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 78c | 63.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…2779backed Yes | 78c | 62.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 34c | 58.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 44c | 57.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 40c | 55.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 53.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 48c | 52.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed No | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 40.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd89a…2c45backed Yes | 79c | 38.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…0e8dbacked Yes | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 35.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 44c | 34.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 34.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 32.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked No | 46c | 28.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 59c | 25.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 58c | 24.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 63c | 23.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 55c | 23.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 62c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f7…f6c5backed Yes | 59c | 17.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.