Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6e300a2186405ee2d8a32783fbd7fb1636cfe567907fe6a67831a23acaf6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,195$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 76c | 839.84$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.53 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 15c | 506.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 77c | 396.18$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 21c | 219.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 31c | 192.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a10…fc55backed No | 49c | 149$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 22c | 147.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…3702backed No | 49c | 143$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…d6ddbacked No | 49c | 143$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 138.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 47c | 126.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 122.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked No | 79c | 118.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked No | 80c | 114.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 31c | 109.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 16c | 102.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a8…e7bcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 14c | 94.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaa…ce40backed Yes | 23c | 87.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 82.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 19c | 80.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed No | 78c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243d…7fa2backed Yes | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…4a00backed Yes | 33c | 60.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…8a7dbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 23c | 59.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 59.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 25c | 59.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…30e0backed Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…ad03backed Yes | 50c | 55.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…cc34backed No | 78c | 50.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…45e5backed Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…715bbacked Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 38.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…4edfbacked No | 66c | 37.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…fe4dbacked Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…7e3abacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed Yes | 35c | 31.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 30.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42dc…bc41backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…f82dbacked Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…a451backed Yes | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 68c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…7950backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…1456backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 61c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.