MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8b0796c8e0243e460a73159ae1ad65e047d206846c2d478b4b347afc14c175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 44c | 14,471$6,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,092.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 4,143$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.69 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 3,511$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.99 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 3,476$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.38 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 3,459$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.98 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 44c | 3,011$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.89 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 2,663$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.18 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 2,007$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.06 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 1,642$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 1,004$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 38c | 477.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 372.33$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 280$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 269.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 240$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 223.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 72.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked New York Yankees | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 67.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed New York Yankees | 71c | 40.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 41c | 31.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 31.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-8.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.