TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,312 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under49c2,927$1,434 inLost-$1,434.171,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over51c1,470$750 inWon+$720.31,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over51c1,010$515 inWon+$494.973748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over51c807$412 inWon+$395.431,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under49c560$272 inLost-$272.489053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c493.39$237 inLost-$236.836,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Over52c480.77$250 inWon+$230.7738455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over51c307.45$157 inWon+$150.658,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Over53c283.8$150 inWon+$133.840348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Over53c279.38$148 inWon+$131.3119752.3%103 W · 94 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over51c200$102 inWon+$981,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Under49c102.04$50 inLost-$5020350.2%102 W · 101 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over51c99.98$51 inWon+$48.991,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Over51c88$45 inWon+$43.1242550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over54c88$48 inWon+$40.345,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over52c76.92$40 inWon+$36.9279543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over52c53$28 inWon+$25.4472648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over51c50$26 inWon+$24.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under48c48.99$24 inLost-$23.522,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under42c43.79$19 inLost-$18.5641836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe803…0416backed Under49c40.82$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-72.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x193a…2b55backed Under49c40.82$20 inLost-$2023455.1%129 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked Under49c35$17 inLost-$17.2512555.2%69 W · 56 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under49c33.23$16 inLost-$16.284,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.