TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Kansas City Royals46c11,712$5,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,387.431,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Kansas City Royals47c8,735$4,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,105.2911849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked New York Yankees71c8,000$5,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,32060350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees54c7,797$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.54,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals29c7,567$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.4310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed New York Yankees54c7,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals46c5,358$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.712,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees53c3,817$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.4111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Kansas City Royals46c2,928$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.6655052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees54c2,363$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.982,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed New York Yankees54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92024946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals46c1,935$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.215,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed New York Yankees54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8518658.6%109 W · 77 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees67c1,778$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.528,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals47c1,703$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.511,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals46c1,700$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.9989053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed New York Yankees53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.991,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Yankees53c1,346$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.621,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals46c1,270$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.983,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals46c1,237$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.8973748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e86…cb8fbacked New York Yankees54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4607451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees63c985$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed New York Yankees54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.931,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8656…bd69backed New York Yankees54c897.02$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees50c878$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.783,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Kansas City Royals46c855.32$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.4556851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked New York Yankees54c833.33$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3343247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals51c588$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.882,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Kansas City Royals30c562$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3757046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x914a…920fbacked New York Yankees55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.454959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees53c499.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2359,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed New York Yankees54c462$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5220455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed New York Yankees53c408.91$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.191,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…3c33backed New York Yankees54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.374245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked New York Yankees54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3712845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…27f1backed New York Yankees54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.371560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals46c345.44$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.266,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked New York Yankees54c280$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.848354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4f…3216backed New York Yankees54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.782369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals48c226.27$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals46c220.69$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.522,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed New York Yankees49c209$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5912143.8%53 W · 68 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57af…81cebacked New York Yankees54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.195855.2%32 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cce…2ff1backed New York Yankees54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e79…10c0backed New York Yankees54c183.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.336369.8%44 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+26.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Kansas City Royals46c149.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Kansas City Royals46c146$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.162,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed New York Yankees54c129.63$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6354455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed New York Yankees54c127.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.782516%4 W · 21 L-8.4wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-70.9%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x260b…aa9ebacked New York Yankees60c107.02$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8512555.2%69 W · 56 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees54c107$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2246854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees54c107$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2272154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked New York Yankees53c100.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.691,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed New York Yankees54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4684651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7210…4bb5backed Kansas City Royals47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Kansas City Royals46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddb…ed44backed New York Yankees54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.594854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked New York Yankees54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5939149.1%192 W · 199 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees64c89.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.981,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals47c88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.365,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked New York Yankees53c88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3650748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7d…695fbacked New York Yankees54c74.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0812753.5%68 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed New York Yankees54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0719754.8%108 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked New York Yankees54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0722257.7%128 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked New York Yankees74c67.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.427652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce1…a25dbacked New York Yankees54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.66152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Kansas City Royals26c58.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5443954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked New York Yankees54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5662554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3255…ffb9backed New York Yankees54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5618053.9%97 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed New York Yankees54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.563053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Kansas City Royals48c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4472648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed New York Yankees54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2358652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed New York Yankees53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.555953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals46c47.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2139…764fbacked New York Yankees54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…2c65backed New York Yankees54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.321954.8%120 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Kansas City Royals46c42.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed New York Yankees54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.424152.7%127 W · 114 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked New York Yankees54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.416345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Kansas City Royals46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Kansas City Royals43c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9533934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees53c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fee…3d67backed New York Yankees54c29.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.615947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a3…f6a6backed New York Yankees54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5079…e560backed New York Yankees54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.787454.1%40 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked New York Yankees73c27.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43070%21 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89f2…d85fbacked New York Yankees54c26.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.01862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c29…e8ffbacked New York Yankees54c25.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Kansas City Royals46c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-73.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Kansas City Royals47c24.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.739553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa087…d888backed New York Yankees54c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.229753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7884…1fb0backed New York Yankees54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.27659.2%45 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3056…2b09backed New York Yankees54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.26357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees63c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.081,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.