MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da12b5d7552655ae0baa2acaa98779b2f5e263f8be5f06c9479e41ac2faae78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 862.4$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 572.06$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.38 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 401.97$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 299.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 298.96$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 294.7$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 283.44$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 250.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 242.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 157.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 147.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 145.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 134.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 116.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 114.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 95.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 91.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 76.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 74.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 70.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 69.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 69.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 59.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 56.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 53.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 51.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 50.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…3c86backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 50.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 49.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 46.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 46.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 41.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 41.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…4a98backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 32.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a37…6e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 17.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.