Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dfaf12fe65976c0aac3a2635527df57d6a57703b084beb9c2e592108261d257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 2c | 8,073$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 72c | 2,909$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.47 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,463$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 19c | 1,347$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 1,096$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 978.4$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.95 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 13c | 503.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 28c | 327.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 13c | 270.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 240.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 223.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 24c | 196.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f19fbacked Yes | 30c | 163.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked No | 73c | 135.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 130.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 70c | 120.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 73c | 107.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 214 | 73.4%157 W · 57 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked Yes | 28c | 95.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…5ff3backed Yes | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 27c | 71.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…617cbacked No | 71c | 55.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…c50abacked No | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…9c4fbacked No | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…610dbacked Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 28c | 50.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 136 | 28.7%39 W · 97 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 25c | 42.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 73c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-24?this page
- Will FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.