Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa87de0d68b21174382036b3bdeda34855e48050a953d63abc6ff60faff9f0fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 4,129$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.58 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 3,143$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.13 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 11c | 1,067$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 35c | 923$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.39 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 20c | 866.32$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 52c | 823.18$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 29c | 676$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Yes | 49c | 599.84$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 28c | 523.71$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 29c | 439.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 12c | 394.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 71c | 393.04$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 76c | 374.17$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed No | 58c | 336.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 315.27$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 76c | 291.87$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 50c | 291$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 71c | 245.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 71c | 245.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 71c | 243.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 19c | 229.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 68c | 227.6$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 23c | 204.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Yes | 55c | 204.34$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 69c | 193$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 29c | 110.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 29c | 99.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 92.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 30c | 91.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 17c | 81.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 77.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked No | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 66c | 68.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 28c | 54.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 39c | 51.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 30c | 48.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 70c | 47.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 44.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 80c | 44.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 71c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 60c | 22.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 72 | 76.4%55 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 72c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-04-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.