Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dfe1b366b7f3b68ba353f54f251501d542f0b40ac8aa2555eb67bec724332d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 75c | 700$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 264.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 23c | 149.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 139.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 113$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 108.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 85.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 73.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 19c | 61.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…a2edbacked Yes | 37c | 60.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 60.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 58.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 37c | 55.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed Yes | 40c | 54.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 53.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 73c | 52.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 52.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 30c | 50.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 47.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 37.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 29c | 35.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 31.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 29.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…3d3bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 25.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 18.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.