Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ca89829d98fcafdbabeee00b62687cb8e23dc7ecb0530031f18f1a4871144f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 2c | 755.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 10c | 325.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 219.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 152.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 27c | 128.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 50c | 116.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 87.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 70c | 67.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 67.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 66.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 60.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 64c | 60.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 51c | 60.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 52c | 59.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…9190backed No | 55c | 59.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 48c | 58.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 43c | 56.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 51.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 51.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 48.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 50c | 47.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 43.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 40.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 38.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 53c | 37.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 32.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 31.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 46c | 27.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 56c | 25.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 22.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 78c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 68c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…bd7fbacked Yes | 62c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 61c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.